NFL PROS@PROSE PICKS: WEEK 13
Week 12 saw the favorites jump back on top, going 8-7-1. This week there are some interesting match-ups even with insignificant games. The Patriots are the highest-favored team this week but I think it's a trap play, Jared Goff being the designated Fisher-saver... you buy that?
Let's go!
(NOTE: Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns have byes. All times posted are Pac time. Handicapping below is done prior to knowing the odds unless unavoidable.)
1st of two The Games of the Week:
DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The line: Cowboys -3, The Game: Thursday 5:25PM NFL Network, The Skinny:
(Color Rush jerseys worn here)
Offensively, the Cowboys and Vikings are going in separate directions; the Cowboys are ranked 2nd in rushing – Vikings are 32nd, Cowboys are 3rd in points scored per game – Vikings are 24th. Flip to the defense and you get Vikings 3rd overall to the Cowboys 21st. Yet some of us (including myself) still doubt if they are a top-tier team and every week they shoot holes in our opinions and predictions. Although I knew the day would come ‘round again when at least one team would prove that old school football (strong O-line and RB) prevails in the end over the so-called less boring pass-happy ball of today, I didn’t think it would be Jerry Jones’ Cowboys.
Minnesota’s a top 10 sack defense, the Cowboys aren’t even top 20 so if Dallas can’t get to Bradford it could be a long night especially if Stephon Diggs (questionable) can get and stay on the field. Still, In the last 6 weeks the Vikings have only scored more than 20 points once to beat what might’ve been considered their toughest game at the start of the season, the Cardinals. Ultimately, the Cowboys O-line wears down opposing trench guys and secondaries aren’t real keen on tackling that new Beast Mode-type upgrade I call “EZ Yards” Elliott…BUT there’s no accounting for a team motivated to "win one for the Gipper" (coach Zimmerman just had emergency eye surgery and will not be available).
Here I go again picking against the 'boys but this should be their stiffest test yet.
Vikings in a toughie, 24 – 23
2nd Game of the Week:
BUFFALO BILLS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
The line: Raiders -3, The Game: Sunday 1:05PM CBS, The Skinny:
This should be a great game with the Bills’ #1 WR Sammy Watkins returning (Bills ranked dead last in passing offense), and the Bills really need a victory being 1 game behind the Dolphins (who might lose) and 3 behind the Patriots (who they have no shot of catching) and still in the playoff hunt. Their problem, as I see it, is that the defense is not playing its best and are given up 20+ points to lesser-scoring offenses. The Raiders are the 4th-highest scoring team in the league but 26th-ranked stopping the run and they face NFL’s #1 ground game in the Bills. They have home field in their favor but Buffalo is the desperate dog backed into a corner. Significant MUST-SEE TV as well as fantasy football-friendly, I don’t see this decided until late in the game. A very tough call, but Buffalo’s pass defense has an important edge.
Bills stick a temporary plug in the ‘hole’, 32 – 30
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
The line: Ravens -3½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
The Dolphins have only been held to less than 27 points once, by the Rams, in the last 6 weeks and boast a 6-game winning streak. They face the top run defense in the league (to their own 30th) and if their ground game can’t get going they’re in trouble because the Ravens pass defense is also a top 10 unit. Miami’s D may not be good enough here as it’s ranked 20th overall to Baltimore’s 2nd. Can't wait to see what Vegas thinks here, but...
Ravens, 23 – 21
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
The line: Bears -1, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
What stands out first to me here is the fantasy football angle; if you are in need of QB stats, the 49ers rushing attack is 4th-ranked in part from Colin Kaepernick. You can also feel pretty good starting Chicago’s starting back as well, 49ers run defense being last. Other than that both teams are mid-to-lower ranked in most categories.
A good game for the ’niners to steal but this Chip Kelly team seems to run much better than throw. Jay Cutler’s done for the season but Barkley seems to be less of a downgrade than first thought.
UPDATE: Snow is expected
Bears, 27 – 24
HOUSTON TEXANS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
The line: Packers -6½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
In Green Bay’s last 8 games they’ve won only 3 and in all 3 they allowed 16 points or less. Of their last 7 they’ve lost 5 and in all 30+ points were allowed. Houston’s rushing defense is 19th to their passing defense at 4th but the Packers may not take advantage. Meanwhile, the Texans average just over 19 points a game to mostly average defenses and may not take advantage of Green Bay’s 23rd-ranked secondary. A crappy game on paper but the Packers appear to have the edge because Houston’s not living up to expectations these days, but if they have success by air...
UPDATE: They're expecting snow on the field
Unless Houston wakes up, Packers take this, 21 – 13
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
The line: Falcons -5, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
The Chiefs are always tough to get a read on; the rank 23rd or lower in may categories yet 16th in scoring and 8th in holding opponents’ scoring. This means they get turnovers and sure enough, they are 4th in INTs. But what stands out in neon is that they are 31st in receivers drop percentage. We know Atlanta’s 1st in scoring and has weapons enough to counter nearly all that comes their way. You don’t want to drop critical passes against a team like this.
UPDATE: Jeremy Maclin's ruled OUT.
Falcons, 28 – 20
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The line: Patriots -13½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
I don’t want to make Jeff Fisher comments here after my “HardKnockers” issue but damn, as soon as I state that the Belichick vs Fisher factor is worth 10 points alone in the Patriots favor it’s reported that Fisher doesn’t have knowledge enough of who carries the ball for the opponent he’s about to face. Meanwhile, Bill has already dissected Jared Goff in comments of praise to the media, a rookie he’s only had one game of footage to watch. Point proven.
But they have to play the game and I know this for a fact (as facts go in my head), the Rams defense will play much better than that Saints game, which wasn’t them at all, and it's certainly not harming them to not have to worry about The Gronk. The key here will need to be their play and ability to get sacks and turnovers because it’s the only unit that matches up equal or better. Goff will probably be tripped up a few times by what he sees but it's now known he can also extend plays (and sees) better than what they've had. Fascinating to witness his road to higher learning.
UPDATE: Rams' Tavon Austin and Robert Quinn ruled OUT
Patriots, 31 – 20
DETROIT LIONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The line: Saints -6, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
Winners of 6 of their last 7 games, the Lions will be a different animal than what the Saints faced last week. The defense has played better during this stretch but suffers when head-to-head with top shelf QBs like Brees. Matthew Stafford will need his WRs to be reliable and RBs to get free beyond the trenches.
2nd in scoring, the Saints figure to do well here having scored 20+ points on the toughest defenses on their schedule already. They have much more ground game than Detroit and will utilize it. Should be a fun watch and a high-scoring event, and I like the 5-6 Saints over the 7-4 Lions because of the competition level faced. I also LOVE the ‘over’ if the over/under is 54 or less.
Saints prevail, 34 – 31
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
The line: Eagles -1½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
I gave the Bengals a little too much credit to survive without A.J. Green, not doing it this week. They’ve lost 3 in a row now and haven’t scored more than 20 points since the OT game a month ago. Not likely to happen against this Philly defense either. Losing 4 of their last 5 games, I’m expecting the Eagles to have a big chip on their shoulders as well after not taking advantage of that Packers D.
Eagles, 24 – 16
DENVER BRONCOS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The line: Broncos -3½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
Losers of 6 in a row, the Jaguars can probably look forward to another successful draft season and claim that victory. The underachievers haven’t scored more than 21 points in over a month so don’t count on it here. The Broncos offense, also underachieving, should be able to manage this road game and have more motivation being 3rd behind the Chiefs and Raiders in the AFC West but still in the playoff hunt.
UPDATE: QB Paxton Lynch will get the start for Denver
Broncos take this, 20 – 17
TAMPA BAY BUCS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The line: Chargers -4, The Game: Sunday 1:25PM FOX, The Skinny:
The Bucs are suddenly playing a couple of notches better than before beating the Seahawks (holding them to 0 TDs) and Chiefs back-to-back. Hard to believe they've reached the top shelf just yet however. The Chargers offensively are already top shelf (4th best passing) and the defense is considerably better than last year (ranked above the Bucs even). Their ground game is actually better than its 20th ranking so this makes them dangerous to a team like the Bucs overall.
Chargers at home, 24 – 20
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
The line: Cardinals -2, The Game: Sunday 1:25PM FOX, The Skinny:
The Cardinals ruined the game of the week potential here as they’ve lost 3 of last 4. The Redskins are having a winning season at 6-4-1 and won’t catch the streaking Cowboys but can still make the playoffs if they keep winning, possibly catching the N.Y. Giants. Having nearly beating the Cowboys last week, I have to see them as the better team here appear to be having more success with their weapons than Arizona (Cousins outplaying Palmer). Perhaps, it’s that 4th-in-sacks-allowed O-line. Washington is 2nd-best in that area, so...
Redskins are thieves in the desert, 28 - 26
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The line: Steelers -6½, The Game: Sunday 1:25PM FOX, The Skinny:
Everybody knows the Giants have no ground game (31st) and that’s a shame going forward, both the Cowboys and Redskins do. And while their passing is their bread’n butter, they are only ranked 14th. The Steelers have both offensively but lack a better secondary so this gets interesting. They’ll need to lead early and run the clock a bit. Yes, they can do that. Both teams don’t give up may QB sacks so this should be a scoring contest, but Eli is vulnerable to one costly mistake under pressure.
Steelers, 30 - 26
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The line: Seahawks -7, The Game: Sunday 5:25PM NBC, The Skinny:
The Panthers here are doomed to fail because their weaknesses are the Seahawks’ strengths. The Seahawks are 4th in sacking QBs and Cam (we all know) hates and doesn’t respond well to pressure. The secondary gives up what Seattle does best, scramble and throw. Don’t let rankings here fool you (Panthers 10th best scoring/Seahawks 23rd), it’s the defense winning (or losing) this one.
Seahawks, 28 - 20
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW YORK JETS
The line: Colts -2, The Game: Monday 5:25PM ESPN, The Skinny:
The Colts are in 3rd in their division only a game back so they have something to play for. Can’t say that for the Jets at 3-8 though they’re at home and have veterans with pride. Though still in concussion protocol, Andrew Luck is expected to play if only by way of playoff hopes.
Colts (w/Luck), 23 – 20
That's a wrap! Good Luck & Good Day, Mr. & Mrs Betting Mann!
(Games subject to last minute changes as updates arrive.)
GOD BLESS OUR SOLDIERS, GOD BLESS OUR FOOTBALL!
Note: In my personal quest to get a party started here — an NFL community party — I’m taking a break from last season's sports online network as I finish another personal project. I urge anyone to join me with NFL articles of your own, challenging me all in fun or opinionated topics. It's a great place to showcase or store writing of any kind.