NFL PROS@PROSE PICKS: WEEK 14
That ol’ division rivalry game means something this time around!
The Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders are on a collision course towards the division crown as they face-off Thursday night.
Wow! Where'd the season go? It's the last quarter of the regular season and things are heating up as it cools off in December.
For Mr. (& Mrs) Betting Mann, the underdogs that dominated early are feeling the sting of payback as week 13 saw even more success than the previous week going 10-and-5 against the spread.
(NOTE: There are NO BYES. All times posted are Pac time. Handicapping below is done prior to knowing the odds unless unavoidable.)
The Game of the Week:
(10-2) OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-3)
The line: Chiefs -3½, The Game: Thursday 5:25PM NFL Network, The Skinny:
Certainly the most important game this weekend, both these two division rivals figure to produce a playoff-caliber effort in their quest to be the new likely king of the AFC West.
The Raiders have the edge and momentum riding a 6-game winning streak in which 5 of the 6 have been offensive outputs of 30 or more points. In fact, 6 of their last 8 games were 30+ points but this includes the last game they lost, a 26 - 10 thumping by none other than Thursday night's opponent.
Like the Raiders, however, the Chiefs are winners of 7 of their last 8 games and have also beaten some stiff competition including that stunner last week over the Falcons which proved to be the most exciting game despite K.C.'s perceived boring persona. There's nothing boring about the Chiefs defense, ranked 1st in the turnover ratio department (INTs: tied for 2nd / Fumbles: tied for 1st).
Having improved play and confidence of late, I seriously doubt Oakland falls 16 points behind this time around or play two entirely different halves of football like last week against Buffalo. They will need Amari Cooper to step back into the lead receiver role as Kansas City will be relentless going after Carr. The Chiefs will definitely need a healthier Jeremy Maclin to compliment other capable weapons.
Chiefs outduel, 27 - 24
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BUFFALO BILLS
The line: Steelers -3, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
Buffalo's last 5 victories were against talent-shortened teams either by injuries, suspension or under-achievement so it's hard to see reasonable chances here. The Steelers run on more horsepower than most even when they're a cylinder or two short and with the defense playing better during their current 3-game winning streak the Bills drop to below .500 again with a suspect Sam Watkins.
Steelers win soundly enough, 29 - 20
HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The line: Colts -6½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
In this division showdown both teams badly need a victory to keep pace with the [technically third-place] Tennessee Titans who figure to beat the Bears and stay afloat in a three-way tie for the AFC South crown. The Colts, having lost on the road in their first meeting (26 - 23 in OT), have won 3 of their last 4 and hold momentum over the Texans (current 3-game losing streak) and figure to return the favor at home.
Colts, 24 - 20
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The line: Redskins -2, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
Although these two teams are still in the playoff race, they are even more realistically fighting not to bring up the rear in their division. The Redskins, 1½ games up on the Eagles and the same below the 2nd-place Giants, are now just one team below having the the league's best overall offense despite sitting 10th in scoring. The Eagles have lost 7 of 9 games since the hot 3-and-0 start, are losers of their last three while not reaching 20 or more points in a month, have yet to win a division game (0-and-3) and Carson Wentz has dropped from the R.O.Y. running weeks ago.
Redskins steal one in Philly, 24 - 17
DENVER BRONCOS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
The line: Titans -1 The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
The 3rd-place Titans basically need to win out to have a shot at the division crown and possibly the playoffs as they are last in division competition, even behind the last-place Jaguars. They have a shot at starting this last quarter of the season right facing a Broncos team that has yet to name a starting QB for the match-up. If Paxton Lynch starts again this week look for the physically-tough running Titans to have the edge at home over their run-stopping-vulnerable opponents.
Broncos, 21 - 16 (with Trevor Siemian) / Titans 17 - 13 (without)
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
The line: Cardinals -2½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
Despite the fact that Arizona is currently sub-.500, their defense is anything but (pass:3rd/run:11th). Miami's strength is on the ground (27th-ranked pass. off.) and that could be a problem if they fall too far behind early. The Cardinals may have found their stride in beating the Falcons last week so it's hard to go against the better overall team.
Cardinals take this, 24 - 16
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The line: Vikings -3½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
The deceiving Jaguars defense is ranked 4th but largely because they're now the new #1 pass defenders. Against the run they kinda suck at 24th. The Vikings are the better overall team but not without issues. A mid-league ranking against the run but 4th against the pass. The Jaguars are hurting at RB with both back-ups banged up so Yeldon will get a workload...but that's only if they keep the score close. Neither team is very good at protecting their QB but the Vikings do unto others as well.
Vikings leave Florida victorious, 21 - 13
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
The line: Panthers -1½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
With the Panthers having the 21st- best rushing offense and the Chargers surprisingly good against the run (3rd), Cam and his ex-fun bunch will rely on the pass having moderate success. The Chargers' RBs are more dangerous than their 21st-best ranking indicates and shouldn't be ignored. Carolina's much better at getting to the quarterback and they'll have to be because Rivers will have plenty of targets and opportunities. This is a close one on paper, can't wait to see Vegas' take on it. Throw in home field and the most dangerous QB in the league and the scale tilts in Carolina's favor.
Panthers in a close one, 28 - 27
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
The line: Bengals -5½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
The Browns are just about 31st in every major defensive category except passing defense (18th) and offensively they go from 31st in scoring to 20th in passing (thanks to the emergence of Terrelle Pryor as a top-quality receiver. I underestimated the Bengals without A.J. Green last week. Not this week.
UPDATE: RGIII is back and expected to get the start.
Bengals win handily, 30 - 17
CHICAGO BEARS @ DETROIT LIONS
The line: Lions -7 , The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
The 1st-place Lions are going too good now to let a little thing like old school rivalry sidetrack them from doing what they need to do, right? On the flipside, it's a bit surprising that the Bears defense is mid-league ranked at 3-and-9. Considering both's won/lost records, it's also mildly shocking that Chicago's given up just a mere 19 points more to opponents. The Bears have a shot if the ground game dictates, but Detroit has a 4-game streak alive and I'm doubting they aren't focused.
Detroit at home, 24 - 16
NEW YORK JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The line: 49ers -2½, The Game: Sunday 1:05PM CBS, The Skinny:
I'm wondering if I should bother...Oh, alright, since you've read this far.
I don't think Cleveland's giving up that top spot for the 2017 #1 draft pick (during the season, at least) so the 'niners can play hard and still be safe in their position. I think they take this at home despite the last-place ranking in points allowed. The Jets are almost as bad against the pass and actually average less points per game offensively. The cross-country road trip and hostile environment does them in.
49ers finally get win #2, 27 - 24
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
The line: Seahawks -3, The Game: Sunday 1:25PM FOX, The Skinny:
Only the home field advantage hints any kind of shot here for the Packers, and that's by some freak-of-nature miracle. Their pass defense is ranked 21st and honestly, that's seems a bit high. The Seahawks will add to that with RBs catching balls out of the backfield as well. Look for A-Rod to throw his arm out playing catch-up unless he gets lucky picking on the replacements. Heck of a QB to face when you lose someone like Earl Thomas.
Seahawks keep at it, 30 - 23
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCS
The line: Bucs -3, The Game: Sunday 1:25PM FOX, The Skinny:
The Bcs have been playing much better defense than their 22nd ranking would have you believe at first glance. They've just beaten 3 good teams in a row but face the best overall offense in the league. However, New Orleans are known for being very one-sided lately with the defense among the worst in the league. Saints need close to a shootout to win this road game...but they win they do.
Saints, 29 - 27
ATLANTA FALCONS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS
The line: Falcons -6½, The Game: Sunday 1:25PM FOX, The Skinny:
At 4-and-8 lacking offense and gaining travel miles, the Rams defense is finding it extremely hard to stay reliable late in the season. This might be a problem this week and coming from behind will take Todd Gurley out of the equation once again (if the O-line doesn't do that first). The mental advantage of home field can only go so far, especially when your team is in the news almost daily for all the wrong reasons. But the Falcons are banged up at the receiver position and if the Rams staff has the right game plan a lower-scoring performance by way of a great Rams defense could keep an improving Goff in the game. UPDATE: (Atl) WR Mohamed Sanu will not be active.
Falcons love L.A., 20 - 16
DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
The line: Cowboys -3½, The Game: Sunday 5:25PM NBC, The Skinny:
Jerry Jones said that the Cowboys won't be taking their foot off the petal so with that I see no reason to believe that those two rookies can't continue to run things in the NFL. 2nd on the ground and against the ground game of others, this puts Eli in a throw-over-40-passes situation and there's bound to be at least one costly turnover because he has no choice but to risk it all with 1st-place nearly out of reach and 2nd-place nearly in the bag. UPDATE: (N.Y.) RB Shane Vereen is expected to be activated and play Sunday. This tilts the dynamic a bit if effective.
Cowboys keep on keepin' on, 27 - 23
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The line: Patriots -7, The Game: Monday 5:25PM ESPN, The Skinny:
The Ravens could make a game of this one if they don't fall behind early and can generate offense like last week. They have the #1 defense in overall yards given up per game and against the run but their offense is just below mid-league ranking. No Gronk only adds intrigue but the game is in Foxborough...and the coach is still Belichick.
UPDATE: There is possible snow in the forecast. This definitely favors the Patriots because the Ravens lack a run game.
Patriots win, 24 - 16
(Games subject to last minute changes as updates arrive.)
That's a wrap! Good Luck & Good Day, Mr. & Mrs Betting Mann!
GOD BLESS OUR SOLDIERS, GOD BLESS OUR FOOTBALL!
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