NFL PROS@PROSE PICKS: WEEK 15
An important week of football. If the playoffs started this week, every team with a winning record is in! Meanwhile, Mr & Mrs Betting Man continue to see the favorites try and finish the season strong after a very slow start, going 11-5 last week against the spread.
Let's begin!
(NOTE: NO MORE BYES. All times posted are Pac time. Handicapping below is done prior to knowing the odds unless unavoidable.)
The Game of the Week:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ DENVER BRONCOS
The line: Broncos -3½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
Denver’s the only team that’s had success against Tom Brady but this may not be the case in week 15. Despite having the same talented receivers, the Broncos are struggling offensively and their top-rated pass defense and deadly pass rush may not do enough to carry them this time.
Brady has a reloaded offensive weapons stash at his disposal, including the recently-waived-by-Arizona Michael Floyd at WR, a talented but inconsistent target while with Arizona. Expect running backs to get targets out of the backfield to offset the antics of Von Miller & Co.. It’s the game of the week but don’t be surprised at all if it gets ugly and one-sided.
Patriots steal it, 27 – 17
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The line: Seahawks -15½, The Game: Thursday 5:25PM NFL Network, The Skinny:
Did the Rams fire Jeff Fisher a week to soon? His 5-4 won/lost record against the Seahawks is probably the best of his Rams-related accomplishments, going 26-41 against every other team as Rams coach. The word on the LA streets is that the players are crazy about interim head coach John Fassel and will be playing their collective heart out for him…not to mention, playing for their jobs as well. With Robert Quinn now on IR, Aaron Donald becomes slightly more manageable with the double-team. Looks like an uphill climb facing the pissed off Seahawks who made Green Bay look like Champions Denver Broncos with game played in 30 degree weather. BUT there’s something to be said about the HEART the Rams will show and the Rams have won the last 3 match-ups when few thought they could.
LATE UPDATE: The Rams’ kicked all the coaches out of the locker room just a few hours before pre-game warm-ups. Feelin’ a bit better about the prediction!
Rams play inspired ball, 20 – 16
FINAL SCORE UPDATE: Seahawks win, 24 –3. So much for candy-coated hope.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS
The line: Dolphins -2½, The Game: Saturday 5:25PM CBS, The Skinny:
The Jets had to come from behind in the second half to beat the 49ers. I’m certainly not motivated to pick’em over a much better defense.
Dolphins take a big bite of apple, 23 – 13
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
The line: Packers -5½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
Expecting a temperature of 0 at game time. How fitting for these two teams.
Passing yards should be at a premium. A low-scoring affair makes sense to me and this may be advantage Green Bay unless Chicago’s RBs contribute in catches out of the backfield.
Packers win, 20 – 13
TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The line: Chiefs -5½, The Game: Sunday 1:05PM CBS, The Skinny:
The Titans are looking for their 3rd straight win to keep pace with division co-leader Texans who play the 2-11 Jaguars. A loss and a Texans win likely solidifies Houston as AFC South champs with a 2-game lead in-division lead. But Kansas City’s defense is not very sympathetic these days and at home in single-digit degrees it’s extra tough for the Titans young QB. However, the Titans are 3rd rushing in the NFL and the Chiefs’ against the run are 27th. The game plan should be no secret in this expected low-scoring game.
Titans upset, 20 – 17
DETROIT LIONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
The line: Giants -4, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
The Giants upset the Cowboys last week and no reason to believe they can’t handle the Lions…other than Matthew Stafford. A flawless performance by him makes things much more interesting but he’s at the mercy of his receivers. In New York, the receivers are at the mercy of Eli’s crucial mistakes.
Giants survive, 24 – 20
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS
The line: Bills -10, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
Rex Ryan, who may be playing for his job, seems to have nine lives in his coaching career. He's not a bad coach but cities starving to get back to their NFL glory days tend to demand more than 'not bad.' Plus, the Bills have more to play for on top of who they play. Period.
Bills, 21 – 13
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The line: Vikings -5, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
The Colts have no shot at winning the division with ties so they must win out. But first they need to get back to .500 playing the Vikings, a team also in a MUST-WIN situation under the same condition, win the division (currently 2 games back) or most likely miss the playoffs. Minnesota has a stout defense and ranks first in points [NOT] allowed while the Colts have the edge on offensive weaponry.
Vikings survive, 17 – 13
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
The line: Ravens -5½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
This game looks really close on paper and it might come down to Carson Wentz’s ability. The Ravens are the best against the run but mid-level against the pass. Wentz can take-off running to complicate matters. But if the Ravens look as ready as they did against the Patriots in a losing effort, who knows what’s what. Either defense’s key turnover-creation wins this it seems.
Eagles, 16 – 14
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
The line: Steelers -3, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
Because of the Bengals' lack of output this season, the match-up doesn't have the attention or glamour it once did – yet'n still, it doesn't dampen the bad blood between the two. The Steelers have won the last 3 on the road and appear to be the alpha dog in this fight, too, especially getting back DeAngelo Williams.
Steelers bear down, 28 – 19
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
The line: Texans -5½, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
The Texans really need to win out whereas the 2-11 Jaguars, although pride is involved, may be playing their bench at some point. Texans' defense continues to carry the team and losing Braxton Miller doesn't allow them time to ease up for a moment.
Texans, 23 – 16
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
The line: Cardinals -3, The Game: Sunday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
The Cardinals defensive unit is not the same as the unit that gave up under 15 points per game (pre-Tyrann's injury) last season. Conversely, the Saints aren't giving up 30+ points per game like last year or the first half of this season. In fact, it's quite the shock to notice New Orleans has not allowed 30 or more points since week 6. How they manage to drop 5 of those 8 games with that offense is an issue, too. The Cardinals, with issues of their own and not making the playoffs as nearly everyone predicted pre-season, are not struggling to avoid last place like the Saints but will still have pride at home.
Cardinals, 26 - 21
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
The line: Falcons -13, The Game: Sunday 1:05PM FOX, The Skinny:
I tried to give the 'niners a win last week and they were on the way until the second half. As far as I'm concerned, that's a wrap on their chances to end the losing streak. The Falcons should destroy them at home. No need to go further than that except to say, I bet Chip's got his 2017 early-Christmas QB list all made out.
Falcons, 35 - 16
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The line: Raiders -2½, The Game: Sunday 1:05PM CBS, The Skinny:
No doubt this is among the most exciting games to watch this weekend despite not meaning much to San Diego beyond playing the spoiler. The Raiders have to know they have a slightly-easier remaining 3 weeks while playing 2 of the same opponents the Chiefs have left as well. SD's Melvin Gordon's injury hurts big time here.
Raiders win, 31 - 23
TAMPA BAY BUCS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
The line: Cowboys -7, The Game: Sunday 5:25PM NBC, The Skinny:
The Bucs, who haven't lost since week 9, are suddenly and surprisingly looking like a top 3-to-5 NFC contender and I have to respect the will they're imposing on opponents... rather good opponents. The Cowboys should have a bit more luck getting the ball to Dez but should establish the ground game early. Meanwhile, Jameis and his crew aren't making the same mistakes and growing up before their fans' eyes. The Cowboys got punched in the face last week and until I see how they respond I can't pick them here because I've now seen the Bucs respond a few weeks in a row.
Bucs steal some beef in Texas, 23 - 21
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The line: Redskins -6½, The Game: Monday 5:25PM ESPN, The Skinny:
The Panthers responded to week 13's can-o-whoop-ass blowout by Seattle with an impressive victory over the Chargers last week. BUT Washington protects their QB better while having a better pass rush and secondary. This Monday night spotlight game has error written all over it as Cam and his band of merry men try and do too much.
"YOU LIKE THAT?" returns.
Redskins at home, 27 - 23
(Games subject to last minute changes as updates arrive.)
That's a wrap! Good Luck & Good Day, Mr. & Mrs Betting Mann!
GOD BLESS OUR SOLDIERS, GOD BLESS OUR FOOTBALL!
Note: In my personal quest to get a party started here — an NFL community party — I’m taking a break from last season's sports online network as I finish another personal project. I urge anyone to join me with NFL articles of your own, challenging me all in fun or opinionated topics. It's a great place to showcase or store writing of any kind.