NFL PROS@PROSE PICKS: WEEK 16
HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!
Should be another great weekend of football with most of the playoffs positions still up in the air.
For the bettors, last week continued the switch from early season with the favorites edging out, 8 games to 7 and 1 tie. You know me by now, I'm not playing it safe so don't expect selections you can get anywhere from experts and their consensus picks.
Let's get it on!
(NOTE: MOST WEEK 16 GAMES ARE ON SATURDAY. No more byes. All times posted are Pac time. Handicapping below is done prior to knowing the odds unless unavoidable.)
Weather Note: Light rain expected for Broncos/Chiefs & Jets/Patriots
The Game of the Week:
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The line: Steelers -6, The Game: Sunday 1:25PM NFL Network, The Skinny:
This hardcore rivalry had lost of some of its luster but this week it appears to have returned. This game means a lot and the two teams (and their cities) still hate each other. The Steelers clinch the division title with a victory, a Ravens win means both teams are 9-6 going into the final week of regular season play with Baltimore owning the tiebreaker. The Ravens, winners of their last 4 against Pittsburgh including the week 9 match-up by 7 points, held the top spot but gave it which adds a little fuel to their fire. Also of note, they've been scoring more than the Flacco-usual in recent weeks. But in the end, there's Antonio, LeVeon and Ben, hard to go against any team with three major weapons. They may also have WR Darrius Heyward-Bey and RB DeAngelo Williams back. The D-line is a bit banged up but replacements are stepping in and stepping up.
The phrase, “there will be blood” comes to mind and this one seems worth the time and billing.
Steelers at home take it, 24 – 20
NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The line: Giants -1, The Game: Thursday 5:25PM NFL Network/NBC, The Skinny:
The Giants have beaten the Eagles at home by 5 points and I was inclined to give the Eagles credit this week because Janoris Jenkins is hurting, but the Philly defense has tailed off and that makes Eli’s weapons capable of overcoming any edge the Eagles might have.
Giants, 27 – 21 UPDATE (FINAL): A healthier Eagles team whips Giants, 24-19.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS
The line: Bills -4, The Game: Saturday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
This game should be more interesting than it sounds with both seeming evenly matched on paper. The Bills D appears to hold bad teams under 20 points but really needs a healthy DT Kyle Williams (missed Tuesday and Wednesday practices–his back) because they gave up a whopping 214 yards on the ground against this very team week 7. Miami’s D seems to take weeks off on occasion and one stat match-up stands out; the Bills are still the leading rushing team and the Dolphins are 30th against the run. This week, they could also be missing their best cover corner guy, Byron Maxwell (ankle). Weather in the 30s favors the mostly-active QB'd team, no?
Bills win at home, 20 – 17
NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The line: Patriots -16½, The Game: Saturday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
The Patriots just beat two winning teams by 13 and 7 points while the Jets just lost to the Dolphins by 21 and allowed 23 points to the 49ers. Face value alone, the Patriots win easily and should cover the spread if it settles under 16 points. Oh, and N.Y. starts the rookie QB, Bryce Petty.
Patriots dominate (unless the weather hinders), 34 – 10
TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The line: Titans -5, The Game: Saturday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
The Jaguars, losers of 9 straight and full-time head coachless, have at least been competitive and don’t get blown out often. The last game you can call a blowout happened at the hands of the Titans, however. I don’t expect that this time around but the Titans are much too physical now and the Jags are in the lower half of the league stopping the run. Hard to make a case for them here.
Titans wear’em down in the end, 26 – 18
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
The line: Packers -6½, The Game: Saturday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
After losing 4 straight and allowing too many points, the Packers won 4 straight and gave up only points in the teens until last week’s narrow escape of the Bears. Not sure if you chalk that one up to rivalry week or are the Packers as inconsistent as the Vikings who had their butts handed to them by the Colts in a game that didn’t seem like a Zimmer-coached team at all. Since both teams give up and get sacks frequently enough, I have to go with the QB that handles pressure better.
Packers, 21 – 16
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
The line: Chargers -4½, The Game: Saturday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny
The Chargers rank 29th in points scored against them. Guess what? This week it doesn’t matter because Cleveland can’t score. At 31st in both scoring offense and defense the Browns can focus early on who to bypass in the next NFL draft. If you have Phillip Rivers in your fantasy line-up, START HIM!
Chargers going away, 37 – 17
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CHICAGO BEARS
The line: Redskins -3, The Game: Saturday 10:00AM CBS, The Skinny:
The Redskins blew it last week and make look to take it out on the Bears. Chicago, having only beaten the 49ers in several weeks, is now playing like they should’ve weeks ago when injuries riddled their line-up. The overachievers have fallen back to earth and Cousins & Company should benefit greatly if they haven’t quit themselves. Look for TE Jordan Reed (if he plays, not being 100%) to possibly play as a decor.
Redskins, 28 – 20
ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
The line: Falcons -3, The Game: Saturday 10:00AM FOX, The Skinny:
The Panthers scored 33 points against the Falcons week 4...but lost by 15. They’ve only managed that many points or more once since. However, their defense has now held both Washington and San Diego offenses to under 20 points the last two weeks so it’s hard to know which unit will show up for this one. The Falcons, coming off two consecutive romps of the Rams and 49ers, might find the going a bit tougher defensively this week. Don’t expect a 15-point victory but Atlanta do expect OC Kyle Shanahan to pour it on as his pre-interview auditions continue.
Falcons win, 30 – 26
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
The line: Raiders-3½, The Game: Saturday 1:05PM CBS, The Skinny:
I didn’t see that Colts-over-Vikings beatdown coming last week. The Colts rose to the occasion like a team fighting for its playoff life but the Raiders stand in their way this week and they have more talent and heart. With a better overall record the Colts and Raiders could easily be a co-Game of the Week. The Raiders clenched a playoff spot already but not the division crown. At home, the Raiders find extra inspiration from their fans so this one goes bad for those believing in Luck.
Raiders, 30 – 23
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS
The line: Rams -4½, The Game: Saturday 1:25PM FOX, The Skinny:
This game just may resemble the old-time rivalry. The Rams have a score to settle by way of that fluke 28 – 0 thrashing by the ’niners week 1. Top draft pick Jared Goff is still in concussion protocol but expected to start. This may be good news for the 49ers because both back-up QBs for the Rams probably don’t have the learning curve Goff appears to have. The 49ers are last in total defense while the Rams are last in total offense, not the greatest match-up of the week but something’s gotta give and even without DE Robert Quinn, the Rams D-line figures to create havoc for the chaotic 49ers O-line. In a game like this, it’s usually the offense that breaks down and makes mistakes against a not-so-bad or better defense.
Rams get revenge, 23 – 16
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The line: ??????? -2½, The Game: Saturday 1:25PM FOX, The Skinny:
In Arizona, these two squared off and when the desert dust settled the score did not and it ended in a 6-6 OT tie. The Seahawks, although somewhat inconsistent, have been playing the best ball of the two since and now they have the backing of the 12th man. Still, Carson Palmer might catch a break if Seahawks D-lineman Michael Bennett can't go.
Seahawks hold’em off but it’s not easy/spread may not be covered, 17 – 16
TAMPA BAY BUCS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The line: Saints -3½, The Game: Saturday 1:25PM FOX, The Skinny:
Having played just two weeks ago, losing 15 – 11, Drew Brees no doubt still has that bad taste in his mouth. In a game like this we get to see the value of good coaching and the adjustments made in second match-ups. The Bucs have been a gutsy no-quick team but unless they play a flawless game, they will find that this one a bit more difficult to overcome.
Saints at home, 22 – 20
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
The line: Texans -1, The Game: Saturday 5:25PM NFL Network, The Skinny:
The Bengals haven’t been playing extremely bad in recent weeks despite their losing record and this week A.J. Green could return if ready and if they want him to play a useless game now that they've been eliminated from post-season. However, the Texans may have found an answer on their offensive void to compliment the defense. QB Tom Savage gets the nod to start and ride with the success until he gives reasons not to.
Texans win, 20 – 14
DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The line: Chiefs -3½, The Game: Sunday 5:25PM NBC, The Skinny:
The say defense wins championships. What they should say is that an exceptional defense can win championships if the offense is at least mediocre, ala last year's Broncos. Denver has lost 2 of their last 3 despite allowing a combined 26 points. That's not a mediocre at best offense right now and unless they suddenly wake up the Chiefs (with arguably a better defense than any of those last three) will hand them yet another loss. Broncos' lead secondary tackler T.J. Ward is in concussion protocol and if he can't play that's a wrap.
Chiefs protect their house, 17 - 12
DETROIT LIONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
The line: Cowboys -6½, The Game: Monday 5:30PM ESPN, The Skinny:
America's team gettin' the attention its used to again. Hard to knock the two year-one additions and they should be on point again this week. The Lions' Matthew Stafford (right middle finger), RB Theo Riddick (missed 2 games already–wrist) and their lead cornerback Darius Slay (nursing a hammie) are causes for concern and they were already facing an uphill climb if healthy. After a 5-game winning streak and holding down 1st-place in the NFC North, the Lions could be facing a 3-game skid (weeks 15, 16, and 17 against Green Bay) to end their season.
Cowboys start another streak, 30 - 18
(Games subject to last minute changes as updates arrive.)
That's a wrap! Good Luck & Good Day, Mr. & Mrs Betting Mann!
GOD BLESS OUR SOLDIERS, GOD BLESS OUR FOOTBALL!
Note: In my personal quest to get a party started here — an NFL community party — I’m taking a break from last season's sports online network as I finish another personal project. I urge anyone to join me with NFL articles of your own, challenging me all in fun or opinionated topics. It's a great place to showcase or store writing of any kind.